UPDATE: July 12, 2025 FEMA gave exemptions for buildings in flood zones at Camp Mystic. Seems to be lack of proper oversight all the way around from FEMA, building and safety, local zoning to the camp itself. I've found this to be a common theme in Texas. They feel regulations interfere with business and profits. https://www.yahoo.com/news/fema-removed-dozens-camp-mystic-111716138.html
July 11, 2025 Owner of Camp Mystic knew about the high risk of floods yet didn't actively do anything to protect the campers. They redid Camp Mystic more recently yet didn't move the lower lying cabins built in the flood zone. They could have turned those cabins into another use and moved the campers into safer cabins on higher ground but didn't. The owner died in the flood. The camp has flooded many, many times. https://www.yahoo.com/news/camp-mystic-owner-warned-floods-101529475.html
July 9, 2025 Houston Chronicle has almost identical article to mine four days later. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2025/texas-camp-mystic-guadalupe-fema-floodplains/ I post this for the people who originally told me I was wrong about the flood zone. I've been a real estate appraiser over 42 years. I examine and research flood maps all the time to ascertain flood threat to properties and humans. I never would have signed off on an appraisal of this property for this use due to the flood map, terrain and close proximity of the cabins to the river and creek. There were even two dams on the property near some cabins and the camp had a long history of flooding. I see a lot of lawsuits against the camp.
Love this quote from the article from a Texan. This is what I've been saying for at least ten years. While I live in California I know Texas well and have relatives there. “In Texas, we have been very irresponsible about the way we treat floodways and floodplains,” said Jim Blackburn, a Rice University professor who specializes in environmental law and flooding issues. “We have always treated them as a kind of environmental red tape rather than a true danger area, and I think that has dis-served us across the board.”
July 7, 2025 A day and a half after I wrote my article CNN wrote an almost identical article using my exact same quotes. https://www.yahoo.com/news/children-camps-texas-were-located-060024551.html
ORIGINAL: July 5, 2025 intense rain and flooding at Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas caused loss of life and missing campers. Everyone is blaming someone else but there is one main cause of this tragedy. The main reason is the camp was built in a high risk flood zone on the banks of the Guadalupe river in a floodplain.
The camp is built in high risk flood zone A, see map above and below. Here is the address, Camp Mystic 186 Felix Fisher Rd S, Hunt, TX 78024 GPS 30.00485531885247, -99.37327619243185. Camp Mystic itself states on their website they're built on the banks of Guadalupe river, "Established in 1926, Mystic is nestled among cypress, live oak, and pecan trees in the hill country of west-central Texas on the banks of the beautiful Guadalupe River." https://www.campmystic.com/ It looks like the cabins are built right next to the Guadalupe river. The major flooding took place as campers were asleep in bed. There actually were rain and flood warnings. Linked below is the flood map for the area. The younger girls who died were staying in the cabins closest to the water. I believe the camp owner should have evacuated the campers after the initial flood warnings the day before knowing they're in a high risk flood zone. Other camps in the area heeded the warning and evacuated. Link to the actual FEMA map https://hazards-fema.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=8b0adb51996444d4879338b5529aa9cd
Better view of the cabins in Flood zone A. You see the cabins inside the flood zone. The flood map is 48265C0450F date 03/03/2011. One should never build cabins on the banks of a river in a high risk flood zone and floodplain. They probably built the camp there because the land was cheap because it was in a flood zone. While we didn't have FEMA flood maps back in 1926 people knew which areas flooded. You could tell based on proximity to body of water, terrain and soil.
They even built dams on the creek. Were those built with permits? Texas is pretty lax with permits so rhetorical question.
Another view of the cabins near the Guadalupe River. The ones closest to the river with the lowest elevation are the ones which were destroyed and campers lost. This is an image linked from CNN which shows the yellow flooded cabins.
This is the definition of high risk flood zone A, "high risk of flooding, specifically a 1% annual chance of experiencing a flood event, also known as the 100-year floodplain. These areas are designated as Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA) due to their proximity to bodies of water like rivers, lakes, and ponds." Generally you would not build a living quarter in this area. If you do, it must be mitigated which generally means raising it off the ground on a strong foundation above the BFE. "Structures in Zone A must adhere to specific building standards, such as elevating the lowest floor to or above the BFE and ensuring enclosed areas below the BFE are not used as living spaces, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers." This is a 1926 camp. I doubt it was up to flood code. The water level went six feet up inside the cabins based on the photos. They were clearly not built above the BFE. Generally you would have pier or stilt foundations so the water can flow under the buildings. I don't see any of these types of foundations in the camp.
This is the building code for flood zones in Kerr County. "A floodplain determination or permit is required for any work in the floodplain." "In Kerr County, Texas, building in Flood Zone A requires adhering to specific regulations outlined in the Kerr County Flood Damage Prevention Order. These regulations, administered by the Kerr County Engineer, aim to minimize flood damage. Generally, new construction and substantial improvements in Zone A must elevate the lowest floor (including basements) to or above the base flood elevation plus one foot, or the highest adjacent grade plus two feet if no specific depth is provided." Based on this the cabins weren't built to current code. I doubt they were 1926 original because the area had previously flooded.
Texas is known to be very lax with zoning especially when it comes to flood zones. They allow building in aqueducts, flood plains and high risk flood zones. This is a Christian religious camps so Texas probably made even more exceptions because of religion. I've previously written articles about this especially after Hurricane Harvey. This is why people are flooded over and over again and FEMA keeps paying them over and over again to rebuild. FEMA will be gone by next year so Texas needs to make some changes. Texas is lucky it has a good relationship with Trump and he agreed to declare it a disaster zone and offer assistance.
In 1987 and 1998 the Guadalupe river flooded. In the 1987 Guadalupe River flood ten teenagers drowned when trying to leave a church camp. Camp Mystic is a religious Christian camp. Perhaps the girls were swept away while fleeing the cabins. Some of the cabins are still standing though they were flooded inside with up to six feet of water. I just saw a photo of girls in pajamas walking through flood water in the middle of the night toward a building on higher ground away from the creek and river. It only takes a few inches of flood water to knock someone off their feet into the water. Maybe that is what happened to those fleeing through higher water.
Below is a chart of the water quickly rising. The water allegedly rose 20 feet in 37 minutes in the middle of the night. This happens in this area because of steep terrain, dry soil which can't soak up water and rivers and creeks flowing into each other. Texas Hill Country is also known as flash flood alley for this reason. There are steep hills, narrow valleys with lots of limestone bedrock so the water is funneled down chutes and is not absorbed into dirt and soil. Great article with quotes from a hydrologist. This is the last place you'd want to camp over night. https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-texas-hill-country-where-160717909.html
Below are photos of the cabins and cabin locations. Clearly not elevated enough. They are literally built on the bank of the river. They are built on the S part of the river and creek which is not a good idea. This area looks like a floodplain. The river banks are formed by the power of the water in the river. That means that area has most likely flooded in the past. The cabins were indeed flooded and buildings were damaged. Such a sad tragedy. In California areas that tend to flood may be used for recreation. They still don't allow overnight lodging for this reason. You can hike and have a picnic but you can't put up a tent or stay over night for this reason. Meanwhile Texas allows overnight lodging in flood zones.
This image which is from a Texas flood website illustrates floodplains and river banks. The entire floodplain area can flood. All buildings should be built above the BFE.
Below is a Google map of Camp Mystic
In case their website is still down https://web.archive.org/web/20250124220815/https://www.campmystic.com/
Mary Cummins of Cummins Real Estate is a certified residential licensed appraiser in Los Angeles, California. Mary Cummins is licensed by the California Bureau of Real Estate appraisers and has over 35 years of experience.
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